Super Bowl LV’s Impact on the Market

There’s always a lot of talk surrounding the Super Bowl, and this year is no different.  In late 2020, the odds of even having the event seemed slim-to-none, but the NFL and Commissioner Goodell declared that the show must go on, and it did. 

The Super Bowl Indicator

In 1978, New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett coined the term “Super Bowl Indicator,” a theory that the Super Bowl winner would predict if the market was bullish or bearish the following Monday.  Koppett’s theory suggested that if the winner comes from the AFC, the markets would be bearish.  If the winner is from the NFC, the markets would be bullish. 

Koppett’s theory has no scientific explanation, but as of today, his indicator has been correct 41 of 53 times according to numbers from the S&P 500. 

The Most Coveted Advertising Space in the World

The most coveted advertising space in the world is during the Super Bowl, and during this week’s game, we saw some ringers from Toyota, T-Mobile, Uber, and more. 

But how do these ads generally affect the price of the stock the following week? 

Let’s dig in:

 

If these companies are looking for significant stock growth through advertising, the Super Bowl may not be the best place to start. 

Allocating Advertising Dollars Elsewhere

Some companies decided to forego paying a prime price-tag this year.

Coca-Cola, Budweiser, and Hyundai all decided to pass on this year’s game. 

 “In an environment where businesses are scrutinizing every investment, a $5.5 million Super Bowl unit becomes harder to justify,” said Jason Kanefsky, chief investment officer at the ad agency Havas Media, part of the French media giant Vivendi SA.

Some marketing officers had to make the call early on, like Hyundai CMO Angela Zepeda, who said, “Six months ago we didn’t even know where we’d be with the Super Bown in February. It was a big thing to bank on.”

On the other hand, Coca-Cola has struggled financially during the pandemic and has allocated advertising dollars elsewhere.  

And while Anheuser-Busch still purchased spots for some of its brands, including Bud Light and Michelob Ultra, the company used the funds previously set aside for Budweiser to instead donate to a vaccine-awareness ad campaign.